“Once R.S.I. takes off, humanity will not understand the A.I.s being built, because we will not be building them. Development will not move at human speed. It will not be overseen by human minds. We will have to hope that the A.I.s we have built and the A.I.s they will build and the A.I.s those A.I.s will build, and on and on, will be acting with our best interests at heart forever. If nothing else has been proved this summer, it is how naïve that proposition would be.” – Ezra Klein, NYT Comment, 21 Sept.
[Recursive Self-Improvement = ‘An AI model analyzes data or previous research, proposes improvements to its own architecture or training process, and applies them to create a more advanced model.’ – Google AI explanation.]
Will somebody please try to explain to poor old Trump that there is no ‘winning’ the ‘race’ to create superintelligent AI? He seems to think the US has to go balls-out in a race with China for national prestige – and his own glory. Hence his claim that the industry leaders’ warnings of dangers inherent in the process are, in his favourite word, a ‘hoax’ – and his belief in the necessity to cover the entire country in data centres. RSI is in the real world a continuous, iterative process which developers hope to delegate to the AI agents themselves, a process to which there is no known ending other than, possibly, the extinction of inconvenient biological life on Earth.
Oh, is that maybe what he means?
Here in Boglington it was 16.9 degrees C in my garden at 7 o’clock this morning.
“The current El Niño is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years and will pile extra heat into an atmosphere in which temperatures are already rising rapidly due to human-caused global heating. This double whammy means 2027 is expected to ‘blow apart’ previous records and become the hottest year ever recorded. The most recent forecasts predict a peak sea surface temperature of 4.0C in November and December, according to the average of 14 different models assessed … as ‘Godzilla-level’.” (Guardian Climate Crisis)
[The previous average or ‘normal’ temperature increase owing to El Niño has been 0.5 degrees C. We’re already at 3.7.]
Don’t buy stuff. don’t burn stuff.
“The planetary life support systems relied upon by humans have deteriorated to their worst levels ever recorded amid ongoing pollution and habitat destruction, according to a key yet grim annual update by scientists. Of the nine ‘planetary boundaries’ that help determine whether life can flourish on Earth, seven are being breached at their highest ever levels…” (Guardian, quoting report from the Potsdam Institute on the eve of the UN plenary.)
GW – Stormy weather
Japan: “At least 4 (later 5) people have died and 22 were injured after Typhoon Dujuan brought torrential rain and destructive winds to Tokyo and surrounding prefectures, causing widespread travel disruption. 275 flights were cancelled as the storm swept through the region. More than 1.6 million residents in and around Tokyo were urged to evacuate, although the advice was not mandatory. Oshima, around 120km south of central Tokyo, received 832mm (32-in.) of rain over 48 hours – more than twice its average rainfall for the entire month of September.” (Guardian)
USA: A major ‘Nor’easter’ storm is threatening the US’ east coast with power outages, high waves and coastal flooding. But still no Atlantic hurricanes – a record.
Mexico: “Hurricane Polo has rapidly strengthened into a major Category 5 hurricane as it threatens portions of Mexico’s Pacific coast running up to Baja California Sur with flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge. Polo went from a 50 mph tropical storm on Monday morning to a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane 24 hours later. As of Tuesday morning, Polo was moving east at 6 mph and was located about 220 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.” The remnant storm is likely to bring flooding rain to the southwest of the USA next week. (AccuWeather)
Tailpipe
Emissionary position
- “Recent models tell us that current policies give us about a 25 percent shot at exceeding four degrees by 2150. Those odds look a bit better than they used to. But we shouldn’t overstate our scientific confidence about an experiment we get to run only once, in a climate system whose intricacies remain mysterious and in which all of us and all of our descendants are going to have to live.” – David Wallace Wells, in the New York Times, 22 Sept. warns us not to follow our leaders down the rabbit hole of complacency, just because the transition to renewables is going better than expected – although not everywhere, your Old Unc hastens to add, as the demands of the rapidly proliferating data centres continue to mount.
With so much potential already to trip those pesky ‘tipping points’, our unpredictable climate can still turn around and bite us.
Cold Comfort Farm
“The Trump administration has ejected more than 750,000 enrollees from the Affordable Care Act insurance marketplaces, Vice President JD Vance announced on Tuesday, claiming that many were receiving premium subsidies they did not qualify for and that some were not even real people.” (NYT) He hopes it will save $2.2 billion. Another 440 thousand more cases are under review. Further examination shows that most of these people are already too poor to qualify for insurance under the ACA (formerly known as ‘Obamacare’) and, in several ‘blue’ Democrat States where their existing safety net of State-sponsored Medicaid has also been removed in White House cost-cutting initiatives, have been forced to apply fraudulently for the programme or, potentially, die. But it’s true, some applicants may not exist. That’s because unscrupulous brokers get commission from the insurance companies for signing up non-existent clients.
Never mind, Health Secretary Kennedy has been advocating a high-protein breakfast, typically 4 eggs and a steak, although most days he fasts until lunchtime. Keeps the measles at bay, no doubt.
